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COVID-19 Cases in South Africa

Here’s the statistical evidence that there was a marked significant change in the rate (slope) of proportional increase (log scale) in the cumulative number of cases in SA. The point chosen to divide the two different linear models is calculated by applying segmented regression (broken-stick regression), and the resultant model (two segments) is a very good fit to the data. The change occurred at about lockdown day, for whatever reason(s), and the steady low increase in case numbers has since then.
by Craig Morris